ERCOT’s latest load growth projections should be a major source of relief for solar originators.

RenewaFi's new “high load growth” scenario, which reflects ERCOT’s most recent long-term load forecast and interconnection queue data, shows positive signs for the economics of solar energy in Texas.

This is most clearly illustrated by looking at capture rates, which represent the percentage of value that a generation facility, such as solar or wind, is able to "capture" compared to the 24/7 (around-the-clock) value of energy.

Originators have long feared that the saturation of solar would lead to steep declines in solar capture rates, as shown in the low load growth scenario below (the black line).

But since ERCOT bumped up its demand forecast, solar capture rates now look like they might hold steady, as shown by the high load growth scenario below (the green line).

The question is: will all this load growth actually materialize?

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